11/16: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY


Job openings fell to 10.4 million in September, but high quits rate points to continued labor turmoil

The number of job openings fell 1.8 percent to 10.4 million on the last business day of September.  Hires fell 0.6 percent to 6.5 million, while separations rose 3.1 percent to 6.2 million. Within separations, the quits level and rate increased to series highs of 4.4 million and 3.0 percent, respectively.  With 7.7 million officially unemployed persons in September, the number of job openings versus available workers rose 23 percent to 2.8 million.



Consumer sentiment drops to lowest level in a decade due to inflation uncertainty

Consumer sentiment fell 6.8 percent in early November and 13.1 percent year-on-year to its lowest level in a decade due to an escalating inflation rate and the growing belief among consumers that no effective policies have yet been developed to reduce the damage from surging inflation. The description that inflation would be “transient” has the undertone that consumers could “grin and bear it” as economic policies counted on a quick and automatic self-correction to supply and labor shortages. Instead, the pandemic caused economic dislocation unlike any prior recession, and has been intertwined with partisan interpretations of economic developments.



Single-family permits rose 21.2 percent year-on-year through September

Over the first nine months of 2021, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 864,184. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a 21.2% increase over the September 2020 level of 713,286.  Southern region reported the strongest increase of 22.8%, followed by Northeast (+20.4%), West (+20.3%), and Midwest (+16.1%). Multifamily permits were robust across the country in September compared to last year; West (+35.3%), Midwest (+26.7%), South (+24.5%), and Northeast (+17.7%).