6/18: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Builder confidence slips 2 points to 64 in June

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell two points to 64 in June.  All the HMI indices inched lower in June. The index measuring current sales conditions fell one point to 71, the component gauging expectations in the next six months moved two points lower to 70 and the metric charting buyer traffic dropped one point to 48.



May retail sales up 0.5 percent in May and 3.2 percent year-on-year

Retail sales rebounded another 0.5 percent in May, and were also up 3.2 percent year-on-year, putting to rest concerns about softness in the first quarter of 2019.  For the 90-day period ending in May, retail sales increased 3.5 percent year-on-year.



Consumer sentiment slips in early June survey on tariff concerns

In early June, consumer sentiment reversed the May gain due to tariffs as well as slowing gains in employment, falling 2.1 points to 97.9.  Negative mentions of tariffs were spontaneously made by 40% of all consumers in early June, up from 21% in May and the prior high of 35% in July 2018; unaided references to buy-in-advance price rationales were mentioned in early June by 19%, up from 12% in May, and just below the 21% in March 2018.