6/6: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Another 1.48 million workers filed for unemployment, but continuing claims dip below 20 million

In the week ending June 20, initial unemployment claims were 1,480,000, a decrease of 60,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The insured unemployment rate was 13.4 percent for the week ending June 13, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. Continuing claims during the week ending June 13 were 19,522,000, a decrease of 767,000 from the previous week’s revised level.



May durable goods orders rebound 15.8 percent from April after two months of declines

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $26.6 billion or 15.8 percent to $194.4 billion. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed an 18.1 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 4.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 15.5 percent.



First quarter GDP fell 5.0 percent in third and final estimate

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020 according to the “third” and final estimate.  In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. With the third estimate, an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment was offset by downward revisions to private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and exports.



Gallup:  Fewer Americans think economy is in a recession or depression as economy re-opens 

Americans still believe the U.S. economy is contracting, but they are less bleak in their assessments than earlier in the coronavirus pandemic. Currently, 59 percent of U.S. adults say the economy is in a recession or a depression. When ratings were at their worst in mid-May, 75 percent said so. At that time, twice as many believed the U.S. was in a depression as do so now, 36 percent to 18 percent.



State Street Stock Market Investor Confidence Index rebounds sharply in June

The Global Investor Confidence Index increased to 94.3 in June – its highest level in almost two years — jumping 21 points from May’s revised reading of 73.3. North American ICI led the way, rising 18.8 points to 86.2, followed closely by the Asian ICI which was up 18.6 points to 100.0. Unprecedented action by central banks combined with the reopening of major economies around the globe likely drove a more optimistic tone of investors. However, it will be important to see whether the positive momentum in sentiment endures as signs of a second wave in COVID infections drive volatility in asset markets.