MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY
Housing starts up 1.4 percent in December and 2.5 percent year-on-year
Privately‐owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,702,000. This is 1.4 percent above the revised November estimate of 1,678,000 and is 2.5 percent above the December 2020 rate of 1,661,000. Single‐family housing starts in December were at a rate of 1,172,000; this is 2.3 percent below the revised November figure of 1,199,000. An estimated 1,595,100 housing units were started in 2021. This is 15.6 percent above the 2020 figure of 1,379,600.
Building permits jump 9.1 percent in December and 6.5 percent year-on-year
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,873,000. This is 9.1 percent above the revised November rate of 1,717,000 and is 6.5 percent above the December 2020 rate of 1,758,000. Single‐family authorizations in December were at a rate of 1,128,000; this is 2.0 percent above the revised November figure of 1,106,000. An estimated 1,724,700 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2021. This is 17.2 percent above the 2020 figure of 1,471,100.
January builder confidence slips one point to 83 as inflation and supply chain challenges persist
Even as consumer demand remains strong, growing inflation concerns and ongoing supply chain disruptions snapped a four-month rise in builder sentiment on NAHB’s Housing Market Index (HMI) which fell one point to 83 in January. For the past three months, the HMI has hovered at the 83 or 84 level, the same rate as the spring of 2021. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions held steady at 90, the gauge measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell two points to 83, and the component charting traffic of prospective buyers also posted a two-point decline to 69.