10/07/2022 – MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Financials and Consumer Services experience the fastest downturns in September business activity

September data pointed to reduced business activity in four out of seven US sectors monitored by the PMI surveys. This was an improvement from all seven in August, reflecting a return to growth for Industrials, Consumer Goods and Technology.  Financials remains the worst-performing category, followed by Consumer Services.


State-Level GDP Varied in the Second Quarter of 2022

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased in 40 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter of 2022 while ten states saw modest GDP growth. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the percent change in real GDP ranged from 1.8 percent increase in Texas to 4.8 percent decline in Wyoming.


Median home prices fell 0.98 percent in August but still up 12.1 percent year-on-year

According to the Black Knight Home Price Index (HPI), median home prices fell 0.98% in August, only marginally better than July’s upwardly revised 1.05% monthly decline.  The monthly rate of home price decline is now rivaling that seen during the Great Recession. Prices are beginning to come off post-pandemic peaks but remain up 12.1% from the same time last year due to the record growth seen in late 2021 and early 2022. Sellers are likely being deterred by both falling demand and prices, along with a growing disincentive to give up historically low interest rate mortgages in a sharply rising rate environment.