MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY
Housing starts fall 4.2 percent in October and 8.8 percent year-on-year
Privately‐owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,425,000. This is 4.2 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,488,000 and is 8.8 percent below the October 2021 rate of 1,563,000. Single‐family housing starts in October were at a rate of 855,000; this is 6.1 percent below the revised September figure of 911,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 556,000.
Building permits decline 2.4 percent in October and 10.1 percent year-on-year
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,526,000. This is 2.4 percent below the revised September rate of 1,564,000 and is 10.1 percent below the October 2021 rate of 1,698,000. Single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 839,000; this is 3.6 percent below the revised September figure of 870,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 633,000 in October.
Purchase loan applications up 4 percent from previous week as rates dip sharply
The Market Composite Index for mortgage applications increased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans rising 4 percent (but down 46 percent year-on-year) and refinance activity falling 2 percent (and down 88 percent year-on-year). The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 10.6 percent of total applications. The average contract interest rate for conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 6.90 percent from 7.14 percent, the sharpest decline since July.