11/25/2022 – MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY


New home sales unexpectedly rise 7.5 percent in October

Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000. This is 7.5 percent above the revised September rate of 588,000, but is 5.8 percent below the October 2021 estimate of 671,000. Sales rose the most in the Northeast (45.7 percent) and the South (16.0 percent), but fell sharply in the Midwest (-34.2 percent) and slipped in the West (-0.8 percent). Both the average and median sales prices also rose from September.  Months of inventory fell to 8.9 months, down from 9.4 months in September.


November economic output index slips again to 46.3 as demand falls

The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 46.3 in November, down from 48.2 at the start of the fourth quarter. The rate of contraction signaled was the sharpest since August and among the quickest since 2009. Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. 50.0 is the split between growth and decline.


Purchase loan applications rise 3 percent from previous week as mortgage rates decline

The Market Composite Index for mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans rising 3 percent (but down 41 percent year-on-year) and refinance activity rising 2 percent (but down 86 percent year-on-year). The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell for the second week in a row to 6.67 percent and is now down almost 50 basis points from the recent peak of 7.16 percent one month ago. The ARM share of applications also decreased to 8.8 percent of loans last week, down from the range of 10 and 12 percent during the past two months.