12/16/2022 – MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Federal Reserve hikes rates another 50 basis points and updates economic projections

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.


Retail sales slump 0.6 percent in November but up 6.5 percent year-on-year

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were down 0.6 percent from the previous month, but up 6.5 percent above November 2021.  By comparison, the CPI rose 0.1 percent in November and 7.1 percent year-on-year, making the decline more pronounced.  Total sales for the September 2022 through November 2022 period were up 7.7 percent from the same period a year ago.


Industrial production slips 0.2 percent in November but up 2.5 percent year-on-year

Industrial production declined 0.2 percent in November. Decreases of 0.6 percent for manufacturing and 0.7 percent for mining were partly offset by a rebound of 3.6 percent for utilities following three months of declines. At 104.5 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in November was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier reading. Capacity utilization moved down 0.2 percentage point in November to 79.7 percent, a rate that is 0.1 percentage point above its long-run (1972–2021) average.