12-22-2023 – MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY


November existing home sales reverse five-month drop, but down 7.3 percent year-on-year

Existing-home sales reversed a five-month drop and edged higher by 0.8% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.82 million. However, sales still retreated 7.3% from one year ago. The median existing-home sales price rose 4.0% from November 2022 to $387,600 – the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. The inventory of unsold existing homes slid 1.7% from the previous month to 1.13 million at the end of November, or the equivalent of 3.5 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.


Housing starts surge 14.8 percent in November and 9.3 percent year-on-year

November housing starts rose to a six-month high of 1,560,000 per annum, up 14.8% from October and 9.3% year-on-year. Single‐family housing starts jumped 18.0% from October and 42.2% to 1,143,000, the highest level since April 2022. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 404,000, up 8.9% from October but down 33.7% year-on-year.


November building permits fall 2.5 percent but up 4.1 percent year-on-year

November building permits fell 2.5% from October but were up 4.1% year-on-year to 1,498,000. Single‐family authorizations rose 0.7% from October and 22.8% year-on-year to to 976,000 (the highest level since May 2022). Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 435,000 in November, down 9.6% from October and 21.3% year-on-year.


November U.S. composite output index rises for 11th consecutive month to 51.0

At 51.0, the headline S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index was up slightly from 50.7 in November and posted above the 50.0 neutral mark for the eleventh successive month to signal a modest expansion in business activity. The rate of growth, although subdued in the context of the series history, accelerated to the fastest since July. There was a divergence in sector trends with regards to output in December, as service providers signaled a faster expansion in activity while manufacturers recorded a renewed decline in production.