6/24/2022 – MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

June economic output index slips again to 51.2, manufacturing sector declining

The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 51.2 in June, down from 53.6 in May. The decline in the index reading signaled further easing in the rate of expansion in business activity to a pace notably slower than March’s recent peak. Although service providers continued to indicate a rise in output, it was the weakest increase for five months. Manufacturers fared worse, with factory production slipping into decline as the respective seasonally adjusted index fell to a degree only exceeded twice in the 15-year history of the survey


Employment situation in May: state-level analysis

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 32 states and the District of Columbia in May compared to the previous month while 18 states lost jobs. On a month-over-month basis, employment data was strong in Texas, which added 74,200 jobs, followed by California (+42,900) and New York (+26,800). Eighteen states lost a total of 52,600 jobs.  In percentage terms, employment in West Virginia increased by 1.3% while Alaska reported a 1.4% decline between April and May.


Housing affordability hits 15-year low as prices, mortgage rates rise

Ballooning mortgage costs, driven by skyrocketing prices and interest rates, have made mortgages less affordable than at any time since at least 2007. Demand for homes has pulled back in response, easing price growth, slowing sales and boosting inventory. Mortgage rates shot up in early June, averaging 5.78% as of Thursday.  The purchase of a typical U.S. home at that rate would mean monthly mortgage payments of $2,127 – that’s 51% higher than a year ago and up 36% year to date.