6/27/2023 – MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

June economic index slips to 2-month low, but service sector still robust

At 53.0 in June vs. 54.9 in May, the headline S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index indicated a fifth successive monthly increase in activity across the private sector. Manufacturers weighed on the overall expansion, as goods producers recorded a solid decline in production after three months of growth. Robust growth continued to be recorded in the service sector, albeit with the rate of expansion cooling from May’s 13-month high.


Employment situation in May:  State-level analysis

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 39 states and the District of Columbia in May compared to the previous month, while 11 states lost jobs. On a month-over-month basis, employment data was strong in Texas, which added 51,000 jobs, followed by California (+47,300), and New York (+30,400). Eleven states lost a total of 20,500 jobs.  In percentage terms, employment in Utah increased by 0.5% while Vermont reported a 0.4% decline between April and May.


Top 10 builder market share jumped in 2022

The Top 10 builders captured 43.2% of new single-family home closings (i.e., sales) in 2022, the highest percentage on record based on data released by BUILDER Magazine; this is a 9 percentage point increase from 2021, the largest year-over-year increase since NAHB’s tracking began in 1989.  This share represents 276,941 closings out of the 640,500 new single-family home sales reported by the U.S. Census in 2022.  However, these closings only represent 27.1% of single-family completions, a broader measure of home building that includes (not-for-sale) home construction.