9/29/2023 – MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Pending home sales fall 7.1 percent in August and 18.7 percent year-on-year

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) sank 7.1% to 71.8 in August. Year over year, pending transactions fell by 18.7%. High interest rates have pushed mortgage rates above 7%, which has impacted home buying. The Northeast PHSI declined 0.9% from last month to 62.6, a reduction of 18.2% from August 2022. The Midwest index dropped 7.0% to 71.3 in August, down 19.1% from one year ago. The South PHSI fell 9.1% to 86.5 in August, dipping 17.6% from the prior year. The West index retreated 7.7% in August to 56.3, sinking 21.4% from August 2022.


New home sales fall 8.7 percent in August, up 5.8 percent year-on-year

Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000. This is down 8.7% from the revised July rate of 739,000, but is up 5.8% year-on-year.

The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2023 was $430,300, down 1.4% from July and 2.3% year-on-year. The average sales price was $514,000, up 1.2% from July but down 3.2% year-on-year. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 436,000. This represents a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate, up from 7.0 months in July but down from 8.7 months last August.


Case-Shiller Index rises to all-time high in July

U.S. home prices continued to rally in July 2023. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Composite rose by 0.6% in July, and now stands 1.0% above its year-ago level. The 10- and 20-City Composites each also rose in July 2023, and likewise stand slightly above their July 2022 levels. Home prices peaked in June 2022 and fell through January of 2023, declining by 5.0% in those seven months. The increase in prices that began in January has now erased the earlier decline, so that July represents a new all-time high for the National Composite.